http://www.ashdodsurf.com/major-earthquakes-7/
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major earthquakes
The number of major earthquakes in a place follows a Poisson Process with mean 1.2 per year. What ...........?
What is the probability of no earthquakes occurring during one year
What is the probability of at least one earthquake occurring during a year
What is the probability of three earthquakes occurring in a two year time period
What is the probability of 4 or 5 earthquakes occurring in a six month period
P(X = n) = (e^(-1.2))(1.2^n)/n!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution
the prob of no earthquakes during a year:
P(X = 0) = (e^(-1.2)(1.2^0))/0! = e^-1.2 = 0.301194212 .
Prob of at least one earthquake
P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + ....
1 - P(X = 0) = 0.698805788
Prob of 3 earthquakes during two year period
P(X = 3) where mean = 2.4
= ((e^(-2.4))(2.4^3))/3! = 0.209014164
Prob of 4 or 5 earthquakes during 6-month period
P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) where mean = 0.6
= (((e^(-0.6))(0.6^4))/4!) + (((e^(-0.6))(0.6^5))/5!)
= 0.00331921278
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8 California earthquake in 2010? The King James Bible Code
2 Comments
Seeing as this is /r/trees, I will bypass the first part of your post
> Did I just see a post that there has just been another earthquake in Chile? > > Imagine that. Overall, number, as well as magnitude of quakes has remained fairly constant in recent time. (ie since we have been measuring them). A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 17 major earthquakes (7.0 – 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year. [Here are some numbers as back
Does anybody know where to find a map of major earthquakes around the world in the last six months?- World Earthqua…